Predicting lung cancer risk would enhance prevention trials. Although the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial demonstrated reduced lung cancer incidence with interleukin (IL)-1β inhibition, the high number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent lung cancer limits its use in unselected populations. Using machine learning, we identified a 14-protein plasma signature predicting lung cancer more than 5 years before diagnosis. The signature, validated across eight cohorts, was elevated in current smokers and individuals exposed to particulate matter (PM) and linked to lung myeloid and alveolar cells. In epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-driven lung adenocarcinoma, diverse epithelial lineages converged on a keratin8+/claudin4+ alveolar transitional state (KAC), whose transcriptional programs correlated with signature emergence. Components of the signature were induced by PM, oncogenic EGFR, or IL-1β, whereas IL-1β inhibition restrained PM-driven KAC expansion and early tumorigenesis. In CANTOS, the signature identified individuals who seemed to benefit more from anti-IL-1β therapy, lowering the NNT threshold and nominating circulating signals of tumor promotion for prevention.